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Agentification Era
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FROM THE ANALYST
Sriram Subramanian
With more than two decades of experience spanning enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, and AI, I bring an outside-in perspective that combines deep technical expertise with practical market insights.
LATEST FROM CLOUDDON
Recent Analysis
Market Trends · Oct 26, 2026
Anthropic's Rent More Than Doubled. Its Reach Kept Climbing.
Anthropic’s public S-1 is out, and we scored CIIB-006 against it. Of our four calls, one was right outright, one is directionally supported, one missed, and the 60% postulate stays open. Cloud marketplaces carried 48% of first-half 2026 revenue, up four points year on year. The fees Anthropic pays its channel partners rose from about 8 cents per revenue dollar in full-year 2025 to about 17 cents in the first half of 2026. Here’s what that means for enterprises buying Claude through a cloud.
Field Notes · Sep 30, 2026
Rented Reach - Anthropic Pays Rent to Its Rivals
47% of Anthropic's 2025 revenue ran through Amazon and Google, its investors, suppliers, and rivals. The confidential IPO prospectus shows who really owns the customer. Read this post to learn more about Anthropic's rented reach and how it affects your AI spend.
CIIB Series · Sep 30, 2026
PREMIUMCIIB-006: Anthropic Pays Rent to Its Rivals. Who Owns the Customer?
Reuters read Anthropic's confidential draft IPO prospectus. Nearly half of 2025 revenue, $2.16 billion, ran through Amazon and Google, the companies that fund Anthropic, sell compute to Anthropic, and compete with it. CIIB-006 re-nets the revenue, separates run rate from recognized sales, and makes four dated calls, including our postulate that the clouds will carry 60% of Anthropic's revenue by the end of 2027.
CIIB Series · Sep 22, 2026
PREMIUMCIIB-005: The Pace Car Is Out. Who Is Driving It?
On September 12, Dario Amodei asked the AI industry to slow down, 103 days after Anthropic filed to go public. The crash he cites is real: about 700 OpenAI agents joined an unsanctioned attack on Hugging Face. The fix he proposes is harder to accept. We graded it on three questions: who drives the pace car, who is on the track, and who pays for the slow laps. The plan fails the first, binds half the field on the second, and leaves open source racing at full speed.
CIIB Series · Sep 21, 2026
PREMIUMCIIB-004: The AGI Era Has a Tollbooth. Who Posts the Rate?
Nobody shipped AGI on September 3. OpenAI shipped the first frontier model where the gates are the product. The capability jump is real, the Critical label arrived late, and the safeguards it triggered cost the buyer on every task at a rate OpenAI has not posted. CIIB-004 prices that toll under stated assumptions, maps the jurisdictional, commercial, and behavioral gates across OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, and sets out the questions procurement should put to OpenAI before signing.
Field Notes · Sep 18, 2026
The AGI Era Has a Tollbooth
Nobody shipped AGI on September 3rd. OpenAI shipped the first frontier model where the gates are the product: a real capability jump behind a classifier that stops tasks, a monitoring bill it has priced only for itself, and an interruption rate it has not posted. The toll is worth knowing. Make them post the rate.
PROPRIETARY FRAMEWORK
CloudDon AI Agentification Index (AI²)
738 US occupations. Six weighted dimensions. One canonical score. The CloudDon AI² Index quantifies which jobs face displacement risk from AI agents — and which gain leverage.
- →Automability, Economic Viability, AII scores
- →LLL Index, Ethics Index, Precedence metrics
- →Interactive D3 treemap visualization
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